Key Points
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GitHub Copilot (2021) marked the shift from autocomplete to true
AI pair-programming
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76% of developers using or planning to use AI tools (Stack
Overflow 2024), up from 70% in 2023
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Fast-moving startups report 80%+ of codebase written by AI; Big
Tech seeing revolutionary change
The release of GitHub Copilot in mid-2021 marked a watershed moment
for software development: for the first time, a large-scale model
trained on public repositories could sit alongside a developer in
their IDE and suggest entire functions, boilerplate, or even complex
algorithms in real time. Powered by OpenAI’s Codex, Copilot
demonstrated that AI could move beyond simple autocomplete and into
a true “pair-programming” paradigm. Early adopters praised its
ability to reduce repetitive coding tasks, speed up prototyping, and
introduce best-practice patterns.
In the years since, an ecosystem of AI co-pilot tools has emerged.
Cursor, Tabnine, Amazon CodeWhisperer, and enterprise LLM
integrations now vie for developers’ attention, each bringing its
own strengths - whether tighter on-prem security, better support for
specialised languages, or deeper integration with cloud pipelines.
Meanwhile, chat-based assistants like ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude
offer natural-language debugging, architectural guidance, and even
test-generation features. As these co-pilots learn from private
codebases and context, they’re shifting from generic suggestion
engines to customisable teammates that understand a team’s coding
conventions, security policies, and domain-specific libraries.
On the horizon, we see new ‘Agentic’ tools that promise the ability
to replace junior or mid-level technologists completely by
empowering the AI to complete multi-step actions encompassing the
full software development lifecycle. Development is progressing at
pace with tools such as Devin.ai , but a proven track record to
produce industry-standard code on large existing codebases is yet to
be seen.
The hypothesis that this document is predicated on is that AI tools
will continue to become more powerful and companies will realise
that without the performance gained from using it, they won’t be
able to keep up with the speed at which their competitors can ship
software.
Industry Research
Within start-ups we’ve seen a much larger uptake, with one quoting that they believe
80%+ of their codebase has been written by AI. Most notably, this
quote shows the dramatic uptake that has been.
“There is code that has been written, tested, deployed and will -
eventually - be removed without ever having had a human see it”
This reinforces the sense from industry that the current suite of
tools is most useful for greenfield projects, with limited scope,
where moving fast is preferable to solving problems comprehensively.
This rapid uptake by very early-stage start-ups can be explained by
the forcing effect that limited resources have on small companies.
Poor quality code is unlikely to force them to close; not having a
product-market fit will.
More widely in the industry, the
Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2024 stated that
76% of all respondents are using or are planning to use AI tools in
their development process this year, an increase from last year
(70%). Many more developers are currently using AI tools this year,
too (62% vs. 44%).
In the world of Big Tech, adoption within teams building the tools
(i.e. the most obvious first adopters) is surprisingly high. Tim
Rogers (Product Owner at Github) shared their data
on HackerNews
So far, the agent has been used by about 400 GitHub employees in
more than 300 our our repositories, and we've merged almost 1,000
pull requests contributed by Copilot. [..] In the repo where we're
building the agent, the agent itself is actually the #5 contributor
- so we really are using Copilot coding agent to build Copilot
coding agent [...]
To summarise, adoption is accelerating rapidly across all business
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Fast-moving start-ups have seen revolutionary change in their
processes
- Big tech at the bleeding edge has also seen the value